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The Deal Reality Check

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What this diagnostic covers

How to tell if a B2B deal is real, and which base it is actually on

Deals rarely die at the close. They die months earlier, at a milestone nobody verified, and the forecast finds out last. Baseline Selling maps a sale to the bases of a baseball diamond: a deal is on the base its evidence has earned, not the base your gut assigned it. The earliest missing milestone wins, because everything built after a skipped milestone rests on an assumption.

This tool audits one live deal from your pipeline. Ten questions, each answerable with something the prospect actually said or did. It returns the base the deal is really on, from still in the batter’s box (a conversation, not a deal) to third base (genuinely closable), and what to verify next. Three minutes, free, no signup to see your result.

The ten checks it runs

  1. Has the prospect told you, in their own words, the problem this solves for them?
  2. Do you know what it costs them to do nothing?
  3. Have they agreed they want to fix this now, not someday?
  4. Do you know where the budget comes from, and that it is enough?
  5. Has the prospect done something they promised you: an intro, data, a meeting arranged?
  6. Have you met the person who actually signs?
  7. Do you know how the decision will be made and who else weighs in?
  8. Have they compared you against anyone, openly, and told you where you stand?
  9. Did your last meeting end with an agreed next step, with a date?
  10. Have they already pushed you on price or asked for a discount?

Common questions about deal qualification

How do I know if a B2B deal is real or just a good conversation?

A deal exists when the prospect has said, in their own words, what is broken, and both of you have priced what it costs to leave it broken. Until then you have a conversation: interest, good meetings, polite nods. That is the batter’s box, and it is where "they went quiet on me" begins, months before the silence.

What are the signs a deal will actually close?

Statements and actions, not vibes. The problem admitted in the prospect’s own words. The cost of doing nothing on the table. Urgency stated, not assumed. Budget traced to a source. A promise the prospect actually kept. The signer met. The decision process mapped. Your competitive position known. A next step with a date. Deals carrying all of that close. Deals carrying three of ten ghost.

Why do forecasted deals slip at the last minute?

Because they were committed from second base. The problem was real and the money was real, so the deal went on the forecast. But nobody had mapped who signs, who else weighs in, and what happens after the yes. The deal then stalls inside a decision process the seller never saw. It was never a closing problem. It was an unverified milestone wearing a close date.

What should a deal have before it goes on the forecast?

At minimum: an admitted problem, a priced cost of inaction, stated urgency, traced budget, and a mapped decision process with the signer engaged. Anything less is pipeline, not forecast. Forecast accuracy is not a spreadsheet skill. It is the discipline of only committing deals whose milestones are verified.

What is Baseline Selling?

Baseline Selling is a milestone-centric sales operating system. It maps the sale to the bases of a baseball diamond, gates each advance on evidence the prospect supplied, and gives sales leaders a forecast built on verified milestones instead of optimism. BigLeaps Consulting installs it in mid-market B2B tech companies across India. To audit your selling habits instead of one deal, use Why They Ghost You.

Written by Nelson Fernandes, founder of BigLeaps Consulting. 34 years in B2B sales, 21.5 inside Tata and TCS. More on forecasts the board can trust in this essay.

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